9 thoughts on “Arthur C. Clarke Award 2018 Submissions List”

1. Oh, does this mean the Sharke’s will be revving up soon?

2. @Meredith

   I believe so. I’m tempted to try out my own attempt at a shortlist just to see how badly it deviates.

3. @Mark

   That does sound fun. I don’t think I’ll have the spoons to do that in Hugo season, but if you do I’d love to see it.

   I’m kinda looking forward to seeing how it goes this year. I had quibbles last year with their approach to criticism (although I’m not keen on the Chambers books) but there was enough interesting stuff that I’m happy to see it continue.

4. I have read 17 of these. 5 fell onto my “worst books” list; most of the rest I would consider good or great candidates.

   I fully expect that all 5 will be on the finalist announcement.

5. @Meredith: They already have: 2018 Shadow Clarke Jury

6. Well, I thought I’d stick my neck out and make some guesses this even though the chances of glorious/embarrassing failure are really quite high. This is a prediction of what the jury might do, not my actual opinion, not least because there are plenty I haven’t read. I’m assuming that the current jury are unlikely to go any further towards allowing straight fantasy than previous ones did – there were valid arguments for considering Underground Railroad SF and alt-history seems to get a pass but I don’t see something like City of Miracles getting through. I also see a pattern where sequels don’t have much of a chance unless the previous volume was nominated.

   Looking at some that I’ve either read or heard stuff about:
   The Rift—Nina Allan – BSFA finalist. Does previously running the Sharkes make you more or less likely to be a Clarke finalist?
   The Massacre of Mankind—Stephen Baxter – bit of a longshot but “respected Brit SF author sequels a genre classic” could be attractive
   Rotherweird—Andrew Caldecott – could be a contender for the Weird Britishness slot
   Dreams Before the Start of Time—Anne Charnock – BSFA finalist and well-regarded, I feel like this and The Rift inhabit a similar slot and only one will come through.
   American War—Omar El Akkad – could be this year’s Underground Railroad…
   Exit West—Mohsin Hamid – …or this could, and it’s a BSFA finalist so I think this gets the nod.
   Gnomon—Nick Harkaway – well-regarded Brit writes well-reviewed novel, has been shortlisted before, could be a contender
   The Stars are Legion—Kameron Hurley – interesting but flawed means lots to talk about, could be considered both in the spirit of Clarke and rejecting it, which makes for a fun pick and Hurley is a former finalist.
   The Stone Sky—N.K. Jemisin – the chances of a sequel getting through when previous books didn’t seem low, but is this the chance to effectively recognise the whole series? Seems a long shot although personally I’d like to see it.
   Provenance—Ann Leckie – Leckie is a previous winner with Ancillary Justice but will a quieter follow-up interest the jury? Possibly not even though it’s a BSFA finalist.
   Raven Stratagem—Yoon Ha Lee – arguably stands quite well alone, and Ninefox was shortlisted, but I think that as it doesn’t advance the SF ideas of Ninefox significantly it may fall away.
   Noumenon—Marina Lostetter – could be thought quite Clarke but is it good enough for the shortlist?
   Austral—Paul McAuley – former winner and frequent finalist, not appeared recently, new book is highly relevant and a bit of a return to form – seems a likely pick to me.
   The Last Days of New Paris—China Miéville – multiple wins for Mieville give him form, but will weird alt-history be enough to squeeze through their definition of SF? A possibility.
   Autonomous—Annalee Newitz – a well-regarded debut with interesting SF ideas, could have an outside chance.
   Too Like the Lightning—Ada Palmer – a spectacular marmite debut, generated lots of talk, I don’t think the Shadow jury could avoid this sort of provoking choice but maybe the real one will. Poor UK release may hamper it.
   The Real-Town Murders—Adam Roberts – this really wasn’t my cup of tea but it’s been popular. There’s a flaw in the plot that I think means it can’t advance to the next round.
   New York 2140—Kim Stanley Robinson – 6 appearances no wins, so don’t bet against him, but does a list with Austral on it need another climate change story though?
   Dogs of War—Adrian Tchaikovsky – would be an unusual choice given how short it is but it’s a really good standalone from a former winner.
   Artemis—Andy Weir – maaaaybe some interest in lieu of The Martian but I’m not seeing it.
   Borne—Jeff VanderMeer – never been a finalist, does the gigantic flying bear get him there this year? I suspect Mieville will use up the Weird Quota before Borne gets in.

   So, sticking my finger in the air for the proper jury I’ll predict:
   Dreams Before the Start of Time—Anne Charnock
   Exit West—Mohsin Hamid
   Gnomon—Nick Harkaway
   Austral—Paul McAuley
   The Last Days of New Paris—China Miéville
   Too Like the Lightning—Ada Palmer

   Of those, I think Charnock, Hamid, and McAuley are stronger guesses than the others.

   As for what the Shadow Clarke might do – they have a really wide spread of judges so any prediction is a bit more of a stab in the dark. I think they’ll overlap with the real jury on Charnock and Hamid, and might be tempted to have Palmer in there just to argue about, but apart from that I’m not sure. Actually my main prediction is that there are at least couple of shadow judges who’ll pick some things I’ve never even considered, which will be a good thing.

7. Nicholas Whyte has crunched the numbers as well.
   Based on those, my guess at Gnomon is looking a lot less credible. The same goes for Charnock but her BSFA noms means I’m sticking with that prediction.

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