Mark Leeper in MT Void 1596 discusses each nominee for 2010 Best Dramatic Presentation, Long Form, then makes this prediction:
So what do I think will win? No question that the smart money bets with AVATAR. I think it is already the most financially successful film since at least the fall of the Hittite Empire.
I don’t expect that kind of concession from a fan who personally witnessed Bladerunner win the Hugo. All through the summer of 1983 fans were publicly predicting a Hugo for box office smash E.T. while privately casting their solitary votes for the film they really liked — Bladerunner. And guess what happens when people don’t actually vote for the supposed front-runner?
So, if Avatar isn’t the fan favorite this year then which film is? I’d have thought from the buzz surrounding it that the answer is Moon. Mark Leeper has a different idea:
What deserves to win? 60% of the films have strong anti-Establishment themes. That is a bad sign. I would rule out the two “My-Life-As-An-Alien” twins. If I look at the remaining three, UP would be the first to go, reluctantly. I am very ambivalent about STAR TREK. MOON is a nice uniformly good science fiction story. I think I would go with STAR TREK for the high points and try to forget Scotty getting jammed in the plumbing.
Update 05/07/2010: Corrected link, thanks to Petrea!