Measuring The Rabid Puppies Slate’s Impact on the Final Hugo Ballot

“Puppies all the way down” one person said.

Vox Day’s Rabid Puppies slate initially placed 64 of its 81 recommendations on the final ballot. (Update: Two slated items withdrew after the finalists were announced. Pre-announcement withdrawals or items ruled ineligible will not be made known until the voting statistics are released at the Worldcon.)

The following table shows in red the Hugo Nominees that were NOT on the Rabid Puppies List.

The Sad Puppies List is included for the sake of curiosity. It was handled much differently from last year. Items on the SP4 list were ranked in order of the number of recommendations they received. In only four categories did anything get double-digit numbers of recommendations. I have not cross-referenced it to the finalists.

The table follows the jump.

Update 05/07/2016: Adjusted tables for replacement Hugo nominees. Corrected entry in the Rabid Puppies Best Editor (Long Form) category. Added comment to paragraph two above. 

** Indicates an addition to the Hugo ballot made on May 6 to replace a nominee that was withdrawn. (The item withdrawn is lined through.)

***Indicates a change in Vox Day’s original Rabid Puppies slate for the Best Editor (Long Form) category. The first Rabid Puppies post about that category on February 8 included Bryan Thomas Schmidt. The summary Rabid Puppies list announced on March 21 originally also included Schmidt, but on March 23 Vox Day replaced Schmidt with Minz after Schmidt disavowed his support on Facebook. Therefore, Schmidt’s name is lined through on the RP list below.

Hugo Nominees Rabid Puppies List Sad Puppies List
BEST NOVEL

Ancillary Mercy by Ann Leckie

The Cinder Spires: The Aeronaut’s Windlass by Jim Butcher

The Fifth Season by N.K. Jemisin

Seveneves: A Novel by Neal Stephenson

Uprooted by Naomi Novik

BEST NOVEL

Seveneves: A Novel, Neal Stephenson

Golden Son, Pierce Brown

Somewhither: A Tale of the Unwithering Realm, John C. Wright

The Cinder Spires: The Aeronaut’s Windlass, Jim Butcher

Agent of the Imperium, Marc Miller

BEST NOVEL

Somewhither – John C Wright

Honor At Stake – Declan Finn

The Cinder Spires: The Aeronaut’s Windlass – Jim Butcher

Uprooted – Naomi Novik

A Long Time Until Now – Michael Z Williamson

Seveneves – Neal Stephenson

Son of the Black Sword – Larry Correia

Strands of Sorrow – John Ringo

Nethereal – Brian Niemeier

Ancillary Mercy – Ann Leckie

BEST NOVELLA

Binti by Nnedi Okorafor

The Builders by Daniel Polansky

Penric’s Demon by Lois McMaster Bujold

Perfect State by Brandon Sanderson

Slow Bullets by Alastair Reynolds

BEST NOVELLA

Fear and Self-Loathing in Hollywood, Nick Cole

Penric’s Demon, Lois McMaster Bujold

Perfect State, Brandon Sanderson

The Builders, Daniel Polansky

Slow Bullets, Alastair Reynolds

BEST NOVELLA

Binti – Nnedi Okorafor

Penric’s Demon – Lois McMaster Bujold

Slow Bullets – Alastair Reynolds

Perfect State – Brandon Sanderson

The End of All Things 1: The Life of the Mind – John Scalzi

Speak Easy – Catherynne M. Valente

The Builders – Daniel Polansky

BEST NOVELETTE

“And You Shall Know Her by the Trail of Dead” by Brooke Bolander

“Flashpoint: Titan” by CHEAH Kai Wai

“Folding Beijing” by Hao Jingfang, trans. Ken Liu

“Obits” by Stephen King

“What Price Humanity?” by David VanDyke

BEST NOVELETTE

“Flashpoint: Titan,” Cheah Kai Wai

“Folding Beijing,” Hao Jingfang

“What Price Humanity?,” David VanDyke

“Hyperspace Demons,” Jonathan Moeller

“Obits,” Stephen King

BEST NOVELETTE

“And You Shall Know Her By The Trail Of Dead” – Brooke Bolander

“Pure Attentions” – T. R. Dillon

“Folding Beijing” – Hao Jingfang translated by Ken Liu

“If I Had No Head and My Eyes Were Floating Way Up In the Air” – Clifford D. Simak

“Obits” – Stephen King

“Our Lady of the Open Road” – Sarah Pinsker

BEST SHORT STORY

“Asymmetrical Warfare” by S. R. Algernon

“Cat Pictures Please” by Naomi Kritzer**

The Commuter by Thomas A. Mays

“If You Were an Award, My Love” by Juan Tabo and S. Harris

“Seven Kill Tiger” by Charles Shao

Space Raptor Butt Invasion by Chuck Tingle

BEST SHORT STORY

“Asymmetrical Warfare,” S. R. Algernon

“The Commuter,” Thomas Mays

“If You Were an Award, My Love,” Juan Tabo and S. Harris

“Seven Kill Tiger,” Charles Shao

“Space Raptor Butt Invasion,” Chuck Tingle

BEST SHORT STORY

“Tuesdays With Molakesh The Destroyer” – Megan Grey

“Today I am Paul” – Martin L Shoemaker

“… And I Show You How Deep the Rabbit Hole Goes” – Scott Alexander

“Asymmetrical Warfare” – S. R. Algernon

“Cat Pictures, Please” – Naomi Kritzer

“Damage” – David Levine

“A Flat Effect” – Eric Flint

“Daedelus” – Niall Burke

“Hungry Daughters of Starving Mothers” – Alyssa Wong

“I am Graalnak of the Vroon Empire, Destroyer of Galaxies, Supreme Overlord of the Planet Earth. Ask Me Anything” – Laura Pearlman

BEST RELATED WORK

Between Light and Shadow: An Exploration of the Fiction of Gene Wolfe, 1951 to 1986 by Marc Aramini

“The First Draft of My Appendix N Book” by Jeffro Johnson

“Safe Space as Rape Room” by Daniel Eness

SJWs Always Lie: Taking Down the Thought Police by Vox Day

“The Story of Moira Greyland” by Moira Greyland

BEST RELATED WORK

Appendix N, Jeffro Johnson

Between Light and Shadow: An Exploration of the Fiction of Gene Wolfe, 1951 to 1986, Marc Aramini

The Story of Moira Greyland, Moira Greyland

Safe Space as Rape Room, Daniel Eness

SJWs Always Lie, Vox Day

BEST RELATED WORK

Sad Puppies Bite Back – Declan Finn

Appendix N – Jeffro Johnson

Safe Space as Rape Room: Science Fiction Culture and Childhood’s End – Daniel

A History of Epic Fantasy – Adam Whitehead

Atomic Rockets – Winchell Chung

Legosity – Tom Simon

There Will Be War Vol X – Edited Jerry Pournelle

You’re Never Weird on the Internet (Almost) – Felicia Day

Frazetta Sketchbook Number 2

Galactic Journeyhttp://galacticjourney.org/

BEST GRAPHIC STORY

The Divine written by Boaz Lavie, art by Asaf Hanuka and Tomer Hanuka

Erin Dies Alone written by Grey Carter, art by Cory Rydell

Full Frontal Nerdity by Aaron Williams

Invisible Republic Vol 1 written by Corinna Bechko and Gabriel Hardman, art by Gabriel Hardman

The Sandman: Overture written by Neil Gaiman, art by J.H. Williams III

BEST GRAPHIC STORY

The Divine, Boaz Lavie, Asaf Hanuka, Tomer Hanuka

Full Frontal Nerdity, Aaron Williams

“Erin Dies Alone”, Cory Rydell and Grey Carter

The Sandman: Overture, Neil Gaiman and JH Williams III

Invisible Republic Vol 1 (#1–5), Corinna Bechko and Gabriel Hardman

BEST GRAPHIC STORY

Order of the Stick

Stand Still Stay Silent – any 2015 plot arc

Schlock Mercenary Book 15

Empowered Volume 9

Saga Volume 5

Erfworld

Fables: Farewell Volume 22

Gunnerkrigg Court Chapter 15: Totem

Invisible Republic Volume 1

Lazarus: Conclave

BEST DRAMATIC PRESENTATION – LONG FORM

Avengers: Age of Ultron written and directed by Joss Whedon

Ex Machina written and directed by Alex Garland

Mad Max: Fury Road written by George Miller, Brendan McCarthy, and Nico Lathouris, directed by George Miller

The Martian screenplay by Drew Goddard, directed by Ridley Scott

Star Wars: The Force Awakens written by Lawrence Kasdan, J. J. Abrams, and Michael Arndt, directed by J.J. Abrams

BEST DRAMATIC PRESENTATION – LONG FORM

The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt

Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain

Until Dawn

Avengers: Age of Ultron

The Martian

BEST DRAMATIC PRESENTATION – LONG FORM

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Martian

Predestination

Ant-Man

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Inside Out

iZombie (Season 1 as a whole)

Person of Interest (Season 4 as a whole)

Witcher 3: Wild Hunt

Ex Machina

BEST DRAMATIC PRESENTATION – SHORT FORM

Doctor Who: “Heaven Sent” written by Steven Moffat, directed by Rachel Talalay

Grimm: “Headache” written by Jim Kouf and David Greenwalt, directed by Jim Kouf

Jessica Jones: “AKA Smile” written by Scott Reynolds, Melissa Rosenberg, and Jamie King, directed by Michael Rymer

My Little Pony: Friendship Is Magic: “The Cutie Map” Parts 1 and 2 written by Scott Sonneborn, M.A. Larson, and Meghan McCarthy, directed by Jayson Thiessen and Jim Miller

Supernatural: “Just My Imagination” written by Jenny Klein, directed by Richard Speight Jr.

BEST DRAMATIC PRESENTATION – SHORT FORM

Supernatural, “Just My Imagination” Season 11, Episode 8

Grimm, Season 4 Episode 21, “Headache”

Tales from the Borderlands Episode 5, “The Vault of the Traveller”

Life is Strange, Episode 1

My Little Pony, Friendship is Magic, Season 5, Episodes 1-2, “The Cutie Map”

BEST DRAMATIC PRESENTATION – SHORT FORM

Daredevil Season 1 Episode 2

My Little Pony: Friendship is Magic

Person of Interest Season 4 Episode 11: If-Then-Else

Kung Fury: Laser Unicorns

TIE Fighter animation by Otaking 77077

Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D: Melinda

Daredevil Season 1 Episode 13

Doctor Who: Heaven Sent

Gravity Falls: Dungeons, Dungeons, and More Dungeons

Gravity Falls: Northwest Mansion Mystery

BEST EDITOR – SHORT FORM

John Joseph Adams

Neil Clarke

Ellen Datlow

Jerry Pournelle

Sheila Williams

BEST EDITOR – SHORT FORM

Jerry Pournelle

BEST EDITOR – SHORT FORM

Jerry Pournelle

John Joseph Adams

S. M. Sterling

Jason Rennie

Paula Goodlett

Bryan Thomas Schmidt

BEST EDITOR – LONG FORM

Vox Day

Sheila E. Gilbert

Liz Gorinsky

Jim Minz

Toni Weisskopf

BEST EDITOR – LONG FORM

Anne Sowards

Bryan Thomas Schmidt

Mike Braff

Jim Minz***

Toni Weisskopf

Vox Day

BEST EDITOR – LONG FORM

Toni Weisskopf

Jim Minz

Tony Daniel

BEST PROFESSIONAL ARTIST

Lars Braad Andersen

Larry Elmore

Abigail Larson

Michal Karcz

Larry Rostant

BEST PROFESSIONAL ARTIST

Larry Elmore

Michal Karcz (Karezoid on Deviant Art)

Abigail Larson

Lars Braad Anderson

Larry Rostant

BEST PROFESSIONAL ARTIST

Abigail Larson

Sam Weber

Frank Cho

Larry Elmore

Dustin Nguyen

Richard Anderson

BEST SEMIPROZINE

Beneath Ceaseless Skies edited by Scott H. Andrews, Nicole Lavigne, and Kate Marshall

Daily Science Fiction edited by Michele?Lee Barasso and Jonathan Laden

Sci Phi Journal edited by Jason Rennie

Strange Horizons edited by Catherine Krahe, Julia Rios, A. J. Odasso, Vanessa Rose Phin,  Maureen Kincaid Speller, and the Strange Horizons staff

Uncanny Magazine edited by Edited by Lynne M. Thomas & Michael Damian Thomas, Michi Trota, and Erika Ensign & Steven Schapansky

BEST SEMIPROZINE

Abyss & Apex

Beneath Ceaseless Skies

Daily Science Fiction

Sci-Phi Journal

Strange Horizons

BEST SEMIPROZINE

Sci Phi Journal

BEST FANZINE

Black Gate edited by John O’Neill

Castalia House Blog edited by Jeffro Johnson

File 770 edited by Mike Glyer

Lady Business, edited by Clare, Ira, Jodie, KJ, Renay, and Susan**

Superversive SF edited by Jason Rennie

Tangent Online edited by Dave Truesdale

BEST FANZINE

Black Gate

Castalia House blog

File 770

Superversive SF

Tangent Online

BEST FANZINE

File 770

Nuke Mars

Superversive SF

Otherwhere Gazette

Tangent Online

BEST FANCAST

8-4 Play, Mark MacDonald, John Ricciardi, Hiroko Minamoto, and Justin Epperson

Cane and Rinse, Cane and Rinse

HelloGreedo, HelloGreedo

The Rageaholic, RazörFist

Tales to Terrify, Stephen Kilpatrick

BEST FANCAST

The Rageaholic

Hello Greedo

8-4 Play

Cane and Rinse

Tales to Terrify

BEST FANCAST

Tea and Jeopardy

Geek Gab

Hello Greedo

BEST FAN WRITER

Douglas Ernst

Mike Glyer

Morgan Holmes

Jeffro Johnson

Shamus Young

BEST FAN WRITER

Jeffro Johnson

Morgan (Castalia House)

Shamus Young

Zenopus

Douglas Ernst

BEST FAN WRITER

Jeffro Johnson

Declan Finn

Eric Flint

Mike Glyer

Brandon Kempner

Charles Akins

Dave Freer

Dorothy Grant (fynbospress)

Ron Edwards

BEST FAN ARTIST

Matthew Callahan

disse86

Kukuruyo

Christian Quinot

Steve Stiles

BEST FAN ARTIST

Rgus

Matthew Callahan

Disse86

Darkcloud013 (aka Christian Quinot)

Kukuruyo

BEST FAN ARTIST

Otaking

Karezoid (Michal Karcz)

Michael Callahan

Piper Thibdeau

CAMPBELL AWARD FOR BEST NEW WRITER

Pierce Brown *

Sebastien de Castell *

Brian Niemeier

Andy Weir *

Alyssa Wong *

CAMPBELL AWARD FOR BEST NEW WRITER

Pierce Brown

Cheah Kai Wai

Sebastien de Castell

Brian Niemeier

Andy Weir

CAMPBELL AWARD FOR BEST NEW WRITER

Andy Weir

Brian Niemeier

Alyssa Wong

Natasha Pulley

Becky Chambers

Scott Hawkins

Charlie N. Holmberg

John Sandford & Ctein

Sebastien de Castell

629 thoughts on “Measuring The Rabid Puppies Slate’s Impact on the Final Hugo Ballot

  1. That would be an ill-supported conclusion.

    Maybe. But I see nothing in your speculations to disprove it.

    If for example “Binti” got 10% of its votes from people who had a look at the SPIV list before voting, and 90% of its votes from other fans, I think it’s rather dubious to declare that nomination as a Sad Puppy victory. Even if those last 10% was necessary to secure the fifth place.

    And based on the data we have now, we don’t know if Binti placed 5th or further up, we don’t know the distance to 6th place, and we don’t know how many nominations it got via SPIV. If you want to make guesses about that, then go ahead – but you deceive yourself if you confuse those guesses with data.

  2. I saw widespread non-Puppy support in various places for all 5 Novellas, ahead of the final ballot’s release. I think that SP4’s effect on that category — or pretty much any category, with the exception of Editor Minz — was negligible.

    It will be easier to tell when the totals are released after the ceremony.

  3. @JJ & @Various: Our favorite space-faring kitten pointed out on his blog that Minz was on the Rabid Puppy slate; he linked to Beale’s slate and sure enough, Minz was on it. I and perhaps others were confused by @Mike Glyer’s post, which lists Bryan Thomas Schmidt instead of Jim Minz. Did Beale change his slate, or was Our Gracious Host’s table a little off-kilter?

    Anyway, my point being, Minz is on there due to RP, as far as I can tell, looking at it now. Anyone doing stats on % Rabid entries or theorizing how many RPs there were based on this info – FYI.

    Apologies if I’m misreading something here.

  4. Huh? I thought Day was on a tear about not replacing anyone on his slate regardless of their objections. Why suddenly so considerate of Schmidt, but not Reynolds or Bujold?

  5. Kendall: Minz is on there due to RP

    In that case, I’m more sure than ever that the effect of SP4 on the final ballot was negligible. We shall see…

  6. @Mike Glyer: Aha, so he did change it late in the game. Thanks for figuring it out – I didn’t dig quite deep enough. If you don’t mind me saying, I recommend updating the table to show both names – with a little note that one was changed to the other. (I’d suggest an asterisk, but. . . . 😉 )

    @JJ: “In that case, I’m more sure than ever that the effect of SP4 on the final ballot was negligible. We shall see…”

    Yeah, I’ve been giving SP4 a bit more credit than was due, methinks. Oh, they may’ve had some effect, but I doubt it’ll be easy to tell, even post-awards.

  7. Kendall: Yeah, I’ve been giving SP4 a bit more credit than was due, methinks. Oh, they may’ve had some effect, but I doubt it’ll be easy to tell, even post-awards.

    I imagine that a good bellwether would be seeing how many nominations Declan Finn  that Honor Harrington vampire novel got in the Novel category — or whether he even shows up on the Novel longlist.

  8. JJ: I imagine that a good bellwether would be seeing how many nominations Declan Finn got in the Novel category — or whether he even shows up on the Novel longlist.

    Exactly. I’m waiting on that stat myself.

  9. Tasha Turner: As I meant to say, I effed up and you are right. I will fix it…

  10. @Mike Glyer: Thanks – I feel what you’ve updated in the past is the clearest way to do things (but there’re probably several ways to represent it).

  11. @Mike Glyer
    Thanks. I don’t know how you keep track of everything around here. You do a great job.

    I’ve created a copy of the shortlist and marked all the things I already know how I’m voting. Now I’m reading/checking out stuff I didn’t read/know earlier so the day voting opens up I can have a good portion of my voting done unless they have database problems again.

  12. I spent some time this week looking at the Sad Puppy list and comparing it to the Rabids and the nominations, and noticed a couple of things.

    1. If the Sads were going to matter anywhere, it would have been the Best Editor: Short Form category. There was only a single Rabid pick (Jerry Pournelle), making it a relatively wide-open field; the Sads had only six people on their list; one of them was Jerry, and another was Bryan Thomas Schmidt, who had said publicly he would decline any nominations he got this year. The remaining Sad recommendations were John Joseph Adams, S. M. Sterling, Jason Rennie, and Paula Goodlett. The only one of those who got on the ballot was JJA, and given that he just missed the ballot last year (and was a finalist for this Hugo in a previous year) it seems deeply unlikely that he needed their help to swing the nomination his way.

    2. Of the works that were on the Sad Puppy list but not the Rabid slate, the only one that was not also nominated for the Nebula Award was the Dr. Who episode. (And there’s no “short form” Ray Bradbury Award, and only a handful of TV episodes have been nominated.) I’m pretty sure that the written works are also all Locus Award Finalists, as is John Joseph Adams.

    (Since I’m one of the authors who was on the SP list, I’m not exactly a neutral party here, obviously. I did not demand an asterisk because when the list came out, I was dealing with some minor but annoying health problems and preparing for a trip, then traveling. I didn’t have time to deal with a bunch of bullshit on Twitter, and given Cat Valente’s experience I was pretty sure that would be the primary outcome. I looked at the SP list and was certain that it wasn’t going to matter at all. Finally, I will admit that I felt a certain amount of amused glee that John C. Wright, who clearly had not read my story, listed it on his blog along with the implication that his readers should check it out / vote for it.) (Okay, what he actually said: “Remember: do not read a single word or letter of any of these works. This is a slate vote. You are mindless robotic zombies, as soulless as Daleks.” And then he insulted Patrick Nielsen Hayden and told his readers to go nominate his novel because Tor decided not to publish it.)

    The Rabids were the list that mattered this year, and since the Sads released a “recommendations” list of approximately a gajillion words of fiction and nonfiction less than two weeks before the nominations were due, and didn’t even promptly get it up on the main page you’d see when you went to their main site, it’s not super surprising that they were ignored.

    I think there was a fair amount of evidence that it was the Rabids that mattered last year, too — it was just harder to spot, since the lists overlapped so heavily.

  13. @Naomi Kritzer

    I think that’s a good analysis on Editor. I’d particularly have expected Stirling and Rennie to be popular sad-only choices, Stirling because of the pro-Baen contingent within the SP and the later because he’s a vocal Sad.
    Rennie is actually particularly interesting because he has noms for SuperversiveSF (fanzine) and Sci Fi Journal (semi pro) courtesy of being a rabid pick. His level of sad support ought to have been similar in each category so it’s very telling that without a rabid endorsement he doesn’t make it in editor.

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  15. I think it’s a shame Rabid Puppies have managed to be so successful at destroying the Hugo’s fir two years running. I don’t particularly understand the point of doing that. The Hugo Award has always been a popularity contest and taking the award away from a popular author whose politics is different than VD’s is not going to diminish the popularity that author already holds. Popularity has never guaranteed the quality of the work that wins the Hugo Award either. If VD wants to promote his viewpoint, he ought to be creating his own award show instead.

    My opinion on Hugo voting is we shouldn’t take the award from deserving work just because it landed on either puppy list. The categories destroyed by the lists are mostly pretty obvious and if I manage to attend this year ( I’m going to try) I’ll vote no award in those categories.

    But personally, I think the best solution last year would have been and this year would be, to replace the Hugo award with the Laika Award, Laika being the saddest puppy in history. The award would be easily created by simply making small plastic dogs in space suits and attaching them to the existing Hugo Award rockets with a life line. If one were to do this, we could avoid having to have no winner in any category, because they wouldn’t be Hugos this year. They’d be Laikas, which would forever identify them with the controversial Sad and Rabid Puppy recommended and slate lists.

  16. @David Merrill

    I don’t particularly understand the point of doing that. The Hugo Award has always been a popularity contest and taking the award away from a popular author whose politics is different than VD’s is not going to diminish the popularity that author already holds. Popularity has never guaranteed the quality of the work that wins the Hugo Award either. If VD wants to promote his viewpoint, he ought to be creating his own award show instead.

    It doesn’t really have anything to do with popularity, or promoting his viewpoint, or even the Hugo Awards as awards. It has to do with Mr Beale’s vindictive revenge against the Nielsen Haydens, John Scalzi, SFWA, N.K. Jemisin, and the broader swathe of SJWs who he believes are destroying the whole of Western civilization. He doesn’t give a crap about the Hugos, and he certainly doesn’t care to ever win one.

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