Votes Actually Matter, You See

Mark Leeper in MT Void 1596 discusses each nominee for 2010 Best Dramatic Presentation, Long Form, then makes this prediction:

So what do I think will win? No question that the smart money bets with AVATAR. I think it is already the most financially successful film since at least the fall of the Hittite Empire.

I don’t expect that kind of concession from a fan who personally witnessed Bladerunner win the Hugo. All through the summer of 1983 fans were publicly predicting a Hugo for box office smash E.T. while privately casting their solitary votes for the film they really liked — Bladerunner. And guess what happens when people don’t actually vote for the supposed front-runner?  

So, if Avatar isn’t the fan favorite this year then which film is? I’d have thought from the buzz surrounding it that the answer is Moon. Mark Leeper has a different idea:

What deserves to win? 60% of the films have strong anti-Establishment themes. That is a bad sign. I would rule out the two “My-Life-As-An-Alien” twins. If I look at the remaining three, UP would be the first to go, reluctantly. I am very ambivalent about STAR TREK. MOON is a nice uniformly good science fiction story. I think I would go with STAR TREK for the high points and try to forget Scotty getting jammed in the plumbing.

Update 05/07/2010: Corrected link, thanks to Petrea!

3 thoughts on “Votes Actually Matter, You See

  1. P.S. The link is to Evelyn’s conreport, which documents that fan experts were still picking E.T. on the eve of the announcement. But I am pretty sure Mark also was at the 1983 Hugo ceremony.

  2. In 2007 the SF community overlooked even nominating Jerome Bixby’s THE MAN FROM EARTH, so it wouldn’t really surprise me to see a remake of STAR TREK win the next movie Hugo.

  3. That first link doesn’t work– I believe this is what you meant.

    I’m surprised by the prediction, too. If box office mattered that much, we wouldn’t have had Serenity, Stardust, or Pan’s Labyrinth as Hugo winners. My money would definitely be on Moon.

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